In the San Diego zip code of 92120 and according to Sandicor MLS:  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year, the median $/Sqft changed -9% and the median sale price changed -3%.  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period, the median $/Sqft changed -4% and the median sale price changed -2%.  Based on the current active listings and the number of sales over the past 30 days, there are currently  months of housing inventory and the median marketing time for closed sales has been 66 days.  Over the past year 30% of all sales were bank sales (14%) or short sales (16%).  Also, 6% of all sales were undeclared in terms of their sales restrictions and agents regularly fail to categorize their bank/short sale listings so the actual ratios of these sales are likely higher.

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According to Sandicor MLS:  In Springs Valley, CA 91977 – when comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year, the median $/Sqft changed -7% and the median sale price changed -4%.  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period, the median $/Sqft changed 0% and the median sale price changed -2%.  Based on the current active listings and the number of sales over the past 30 days, there are currently 3 months of housing inventory and the median marketing time for closed sales has been 44 days.  Over the past year 48% of all sales were bank sales (28%) or short sales (19%).  Also, 5% of all sales were undeclared in terms of their sales restrictions and agents regularly fail to categorize their bank/short sale listings so the actual ratios of these sales are likely higher.

Brian Ward
Spring Valley Real Estate Appraiser
(888) 844-1733

In the city of Imperial Beach, when comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year, the median $/Sqft in Imperial Beach declined.  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period, the median $/Sqft declined 7.3%.  These measures indicate a decline in property values in the Subject’s market area over the past year.  I consider the median $/Sqft the most reliable indicator of the property value trends as it is the measure that takes into account changes in what buyers are able to buy for the same money between the periods as well as a change in the middle price trend.  I also consider the comparison of periods between years to be more reliable than shorter term trends because shorter term trends do not consider seasonal purchasing trends.

Based on the past month’s sales and current active listings, there are currently 5.8 months of housing inventory which indicates a balanced demand/supply trend.  Over the past 30 days properties have sold after a median of 91 days of market exposure which indicates a marketing time trend of 90 to 180 days.

54.5% of all sales over the past year had sales restrictions (typically bank or short sales), per the multiple listing service.  Agents do not accurately report sales restrictions and the actual ratio of bank/short sales is potentially higher.

Brian Ward
State of California Real Estate Appraiser
(888) 844-1733

When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year, the median $/Sqft declined 8.6%.  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period, the median $/Sqft declined 4.7%.  These measures indicate a consistent decline in property values in the 92128 zip code over the past year.  I consider the median $/Sqft the most reliable indicator of the property value trends as it is the measure that takes into account changes in what buyers are able to buy for the same money between the periods as well as a change in the middle price trend.  I also consider the comparison of periods between years to be more reliable than shorter term trends because shorter term trends do not consider seasonal purchasing trends.

Based on the past month’s sales and current active listings, there are currently 3.9 months of housing inventory which indicates a balanced demand/supply trend.  Over the past 30 days properties have sold after a median of 45 days of market exposure which indicates a marketing time trend of under 90 days.

25.6% of all sales over the past year had sales restrictions (typically bank or short sales), per the multiple listing service.  Agents do not accurately report sales restrictions and the actual ratio of bank/short sales is potentially higher. 

Brian Ward
State of California Real Estate Appraiser
Houses, Condominiums, and Vacant Land
b@ward.pro
(888) 844-1733 

When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year the median $/Sqft declined 4.5%, indicating a declining property values trend.  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period the median $/Sqft has remained steady indicating a steadying property values trend.  I place most emphasis on the annual rate as it better reflects seasonal purchasing trends and consider the Subject’s neighborhood to be in a declining property values trend that is showing signs of stabilization.

Other Market Condition Statistics:

• There are currently 5.1 months of housing inventory which indicates a balanced demand/supply trend.
• The median marketing time for closed sales over the past 3 months was 41 days which indicates a marketing time trend of less than 3 months.  This has been a consistent ratio over the past year.  The median marketing time of active sales is currently 92 days which has also been a consistent ratio over the past year.
• According to the local MLS, 43% of all sales over the past 3 months were bank/short sales which is a decrease from the annual ratio of 53%.
• According to the local MLS, 29% of all sales over the past 3 months included concessions ranging from $1 to $7,500.  This ratio has been consistent over the past year.

Agents do not reliably report bank/short sales or sales concessions and the actual ratios may be considerably higher.

Brian Ward Appraisal
www.brianward.com
(619) 630-9273

When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year, the median $/Sqft declined 4.9% indicating a declining annual property values trend.  When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period, the median $/Sqft changed less than 1% indicating that property values have stabilized.

Based on sales over the past 3 months there are currently 4.8 months of housing inventory which indicates a balanced demand/supply trend.

The median marketing time over the past 3 months was 55 days indicating a marketing time trend of less than 90 days. 

47% of all sales over the past 3 months were bank/short sales which is consistent with the annual ratio of 48% indicating no change.  Bank/short sales tend to sell for between 11.8% to 14.3% less than standard/traditional sales.  I calculated these differences by selecting a subset of properties that represent the largest population of homes in terms of living area size, site size, and age, and excluding properties with desirable views and where the agents describe the properties as needing repairs, since bank/short sales tend to be in inferior condition to standard sales.  11.8% is the different when considering median home value and 14.3% represents the median $/Sqft difference.  Real estate agents do not reliably list bank/short sales in the local MLS and the actual ratio of bank/short sales may be significantly higher.

Statistics are derived from the Sandicor Multiple Listing Service.

Brian Ward Appraisal
(760) 920-6927
oceanside@diegoappraisal.com
http://oceanside.diegoappraisal.com

Property value trends in the Subject’s market area are inconsistent:
* When comparing the most recent 3 month period with the same period last year, the median sale price declined 3.9%, indicating a stable property values trend, bordering on a declining property values trend.
* When considering the median $/Sqft change over the past 3 months with same period last year, the median $/Sqft declined 9.5%, indicating a declining property values trend.
* When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the previous 6 month period, so that a larger population of properties can be considered over a shorter term, the median sale price increased 3.3% and the median $/Sqft did not change, indicating a stable to increasing semi-annual property values trend.
* When comparing the most recent 6 month period with the same period last year, the median sale price declined 4.3% and the median $/Sqft declined 10.2%, indicating a declining annual property values trend.

These property value trends are not consistent and depending on which statistic is selected, the annual property values trend is stable or declining, and the semi-annual trend is stable or increasing. To determine which is most likely the accurate trend, I performed a comparison of property sales between the periods which resulted in an indication more consistent with the median $/Sqft changes and in my opinion, property values have declined annually, but have been mostly steady over recent months. A federal tax credit to new home buyers last year temporarily increased property values. Indications are that the effects waned near the end of the year and property value corrected back to pricing before the tax credit. The reason there is a difference between the median sale price and the median $/Sqft is likely that the cost of money (mortgage interest rates) have remained near historical lows during this period while property values declined. The amount people were able pay for houses remained roughly the same (median sale price) while their ability to buy larger houses (median $/Sqft) increased, keeping the median at a stable level and decreasing the median $/Sqft.

Other Statistics

* 2.9 months of housing inventory = Balanced Demand / Supply Trend
* Median marketing time for sales over the past 3 months was 38 days = Marketing Time Trend of Under 3 Months.
* Local multiple listing service indicates that 33% of all sales are bank sales or short sales which is a decrease from the annual rate of 40%. I reviewed the significant majority of sales in the area over the past 6 months and I can confirm that agents to not reliably report bank sales and short sales to the MLS and the actual ratio may be as high as 65%.

Brian Ward Brian Ward Appraisal www.brianward.com office. (619) 630-9273 mobile. (760) 636-6777